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The company attributed the decline mainly to the adverse impact of geopolitical conflicts and regulatory changes in target markets on supply chains, reduced shipments in major markets, and slower product introductions as suppliers upgraded manufacturing equipment, phased out older products and carried out product iterations

It will grow from $19.59 billion in 2025 to $20.49 billion in 2026 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6%

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In summary, here are all the key assumptions in our model: -2% decline in traditional tobacco ex-menthol 50% drop in US menthol brand sales in 2026 driven by US ban 25% growth in smoke-free products near term, stepping down to 12% by 2030 40% incremental margins in smoke-free products 51% operating margins in combustibles, falling to 44% over time due to menthol ban and 60% decremental margins 11x terminal PE ratio in 2030 justified by the 35% revenue share of non-combustibles and 2% profit growth in that year

Three models were developed to analyse the association of these key alcohol and tobacco policies with lagged cancer mortality, including two models of separate relationships of alcohol and tobacco policies and one overarching model of the joint relationships of key alcohol and tobacco policies

Fewer financial costs to society In the United States, more than $156 billion a year of productivity is lost due to deaths from tobacco and diseases caused by second hand smoke